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Thursday, February 27, 2020
OZY - Take On 2020: Forecast:- 2020 Dems' Likelihood Of Nomination
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FROM THE EDITOR | FEBRUARY 27
Welcome to Take On 2020, the newsletter you’ve been craving for the smartest, most provocative takes on American politics. This new segment to OZY’s Daily Dose gives you fresh, multipartisan and global perspectives on the week’s political news. Send comments and your Clorox coupons to email@example.com.
Nick Fouriezos, Senior Politics Reporter
UNSOLICITED ADVICE: OFFER REPARATIONS
Democratic presidential contenders are all proposing tens of billions of dollars for historically Black colleges and universities, and other programs geared toward Black Americans. Why not just support reparations already? Here’s where Donald Trump can take advantage: The president should announce tomorrow that he is backing reparations — not just supporting a study about it, like many Dems. That might seem crazy, but the president is making a real play for the Black vote. On Trump’s watch, Congress restored more than $250 million in HBCU funding, Black unemployment has hit a new low and Kanye found Jesus — what more could people want? (Meanwhile, the top Democratic presidential contenders look like oatmeal topped with Cool Whip.) Of course, he won’t win the Black vote. But if Trump can turn his 8 percent share from last time into, say, 12 percent that’s more than enough to win him another four years before Don Jr. takes over.
RISING STAR: AMANDA EDWARDS
The Houston city councilwoman hopes to be the Beto of 2020 by challenging Texas Sen. John Cornyn. The 37-year-old Democrat has moxie, and Texas could actually be in play this year … if nontraditional voters can be motivated to vote blue. Plus, this woman of color is endorsed by Beyoncé’s mom, which in our opinion trumps skateboarding. The establishment (read: cash-flush) pick in this March 3 primary is MJ Hegar. But Edwards reminds us of Kamala Harris — with a killer drive-and-kick game.
Any old prognosticator can tell you who’s going to win each state. Our exclusive prediction engine is breaking down the candidates’ share of the vote — and the delegate race. The Forecast, brought to you by OZY, 0ptimus and Decision Desk HQ, crunches polls, demographics, fundraising, media coverage and more, then runs 10,000 simulations of the race to deliver the best projections in the business.
And we project Bernie Sanders building a huge delegate lead in the Super Tuesday states:
Plenty of uncertainty remains, and we’ll see if Tuesday's debate pile-on in South Carolina moves the needle. And don’t forget: As you can see above, our model finds a greater than 1-in-3 chance that no candidate gets a majority of delegates before the convention, so it may be time to get out your riot gear and party like it’s 1968.
POLITECHS: AD STALKING
Politicians, especially Democrats, are fond of tweaking Big (Brother) Tech over privacy concerns. Yet they’re almost all using “geofencing” campaigns — where candidates take location data from your apps to learn where you live, work and play, then spam your phones with ads tailored accordingly. Republicans are doing this too: The nation’s largest Catholic newspaper recently published an editorial urging Trump supporters to stop mining Sunday Mass for voter data. But the horse bolted out of the iPhone door as soon as you tapped "yes" to those terms and conditions. Democrats should instead be like Andrew Yang, and just promise to pay you for your data.
BARBERSHOP DEBATE: THE POLITICAL GOAT
Would Obama fold like a tan suit against Trump? Would a Condi-Romney ticket take back the American center? If you time-machined JFK to 2020, would he sweep the primary, have an affair with Scarlett Johansson, or both? Forget LeBron vs. Jordan, we are settling the political debates you’ve always wanted. This week: Who you got, if Trump were facing Obama this year, term limits be damned? Trump did rattle Obama enough to release his long-form birth certificate. But Obama eats out-of-touch rich guys for breakfast, with 47 percent less fat. Email us at firstname.lastname@example.org with your breakdown of an Obama-Trump race, and we’ll feature the best and pithiest responses next week.
STUDY ABROAD: HOWDY, AYATOLLAH
Conservatives scored a thumping victory in last weekend’s Iranian parliamentary elections, and that bodes well for Trump. It's not that Tehran’s voting patterns have much to do with Waukesha County, Wisconsin. Rather, as the hard-liners tighten their grip on Iran, it means more provocations throughout the region — perhaps against American troops in Iraq. War clouds could well hover over the race come fall, and Democrats will need a smarter answer than simply blaming Trump.
IT FIGURES: 55M NEW VOTERS
A striking 55 percent of non-voters surveyed by the Knight Foundation say they are certain they are going to vote this year — which would mean an additional 55 million voters flooding the polls. The landmark study of 12,000 “chronic non-voters” found them more jaded about the system and less informed than your average citizen. And, just so we can put aside liberal fantasies of a blue tsunami, these voters are roughly evenly split between Trump and the Democrats … for now.
the needle. And don’t forget: As you can see above, our model finds a greater than 1-in-3 chance that no candidate gets a majority of delegates before the convention, so it may be time to get out your riot gear and party like it’s 1968.